A big November ahead for Senate Democrats

Schaller: Jennifer very astutely noted that in Mississippi there's a potential down-ballot effect from Obama, and maybe in New Hampshire there could be a potential down-ballot effect from McCain. So I'd like to pull the lens back from these state-by-state races and ask you this question. Many of the key Senate races are in swing states for the presidential contest. In fact, five we've already talked about -- Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Oregon -- are all among the 12 states that were decided by fewer than 5 points in the 2004 presidential race between George Bush and John Kerry. Of course, many pundits, including our panelists here, are putting Virginia and even Alaska on Barack Obama's possible pickup list -- especially Virginia. How much will presidential politicking and money brought in from the Democratic National Committee, the Republican National Committee and Barack Obama and John McCain affect these Senate races, if at all, and which races will it affect?

Walter: I think what's happening here first and foremost is you have the Obama campaign turning out at a higher level folks who haven't traditionally turned out. Obviously, [there's] the focus on Hispanic registration and turnout. But we also noted that in a place like Colorado where the Udall campaign is distinguishing itself simply because the Republican has a lot of his own baggage, Mark Udall is already coming into a contest with some advantages thanks to his opponent.

Duffy: In some ways I think this is a chicken-and-egg question. In all of these states, Republicans are hurting because of the bad environment. Which came first, the Obama campaign, or did the bad environment sort of help the Obama campaign? I don't know if there's an answer to that. There's a lot we don't know about this election in terms of who's going to turn out. It looks like Republicans are starting to wake up and participate. Do they do it in any kind of meaningful numbers? This is going to be one of those elections that are going to teach us a lot that we may never get to use again. I've sort of gone by the motto of approaching it by forgetting everything I know.

Schaller: Let me rephrase the question then. Maybe the question is, obviously, there are a lot of Republicans who do not want Bush campaigning in their state. Are there any Democrats who are perhaps wary of having Obama in their state or Republicans that would be wary of having John McCain in their state, where he could perhaps could hurt them?

Duffy: This is one of the things Republicans did right and it was purely an accident. They nominated the one candidate running for the GOP nomination who hurts absolutely no Republican Senate incumbent or challenger. If you're a moderate like Susan Collins, you can run with him on some issues and disagree with him on others. Conservatives like Lindsey Graham can certainly run with him. So he isn't going to be a liability for anybody. I actually haven't heard any Democrats say they would decline an invitation from Obama to come to the state and campaign with them. But he hasn't done a lot of that yet.

Gonzales: Like Jennifer said, I think we just don't know. I think the public image of John McCain and Barack Obama will be different in October and early November from what it is today. I don't know if it'll necessarily be for the better or worse for either of them, I just think it will be different and we don't know then how that will affect the ballot. If you take a state like Alaska, I think Mark Begich could benefit from the better organization and enthusiasm from Democrats. But I don't expect Barack Obama to win Alaska; if he's winning Alaska he's probably won 48 other states. Losing Ted Stevens is going to be the least of Republican worries at that point. I think that even though it seems like the presidential race has been going on for years, we still have a long way to go.

Schaller: Enough with the preliminaries. It's feet-to-the-fire time for our panelists. I'm going to stipulate all the caveats -- lots can change, both at the candidate level and perhaps even at the national environmental level -- but I would like to ask each of you to give me your best estimate. It's Wednesday after the election. What's the net gain or loss for the Democratic Party this November in the Senate races?

Walter: Do you want a number or range?

Schaller: Why don't you give me a range.

Walter: I think five to seven is the range right now.

Gonzales: I'll throw out two different numbers instead of a range. I think the Democratic floor is four seats. I think it'll be four seats or something closer to eight or nine, and I say that because if it's four seats, then Democrats sort of won the seats we expected them to win today, and some of these vulnerable Republican incumbents ended up hanging on. But if the environment continues to be poor, then I think you're going to see a lot of these close races break for the Democrats, and that's why I think you're going to see even better Democratic numbers.

Duffy: I'm on the record at five to seven. I think six months ago when people talked to me about eight or nine, I laughed. I don't laugh at that anymore. I don't think it's going to happen, but it's not outside the realm of possibilities. And as for my range of five to seven, I'd only expect it to go up, not down. If Democrats only win four seats in November, that's probably a huge moral victory for Republicans.

Schaller: You can see that in all three of those scenarios, the average is six. So the smart person's money in the November election is to bet on plus six. I'd like to thank our panelists again.

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