A big November ahead for Senate Democrats

Schaller: Let's talk about the South. You've got one race there in Mississippi that is in the category of not impossible but an outside shot for the Democrats, and I assume that Mark Warner running is considered a lock at this point. So two completely different Southern races at this point -- let's talk about Virginia and Mississippi.

Gonzales: I don't think that there's any doubt in our minds that Mark Warner will be the next senator from Virginia. Just when you think Jim Gilmore can't run a worse campaign, he manages to outdo himself. I think Virginia could even become a problem for Republicans outside the state, because now the DSCC is not going to have to spend one dime on Virginia. And it's an expensive state with the Washington, D.C., media market, and now they can go play in any number of less expensive states. For Mississippi, this is one of two Mississippi races. Thad Cochran is a heavy favorite for reelection, but since Trent Lott resigned, Gov. Haley Barbour appointed Roger Wicker, and now he's facing former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. Musgrove lost reelection to Barbour in 2003, but maybe his standing has improved somewhat, or maybe people don't remember all the way back to 2003, but Musgrove starts with high name I.D. and this is a real race.

Duffy: There are a couple of other reasons this is a race other than Musgrove's high name I.D. This is going to be one of those races where we see if there is an Obama effect, if Obama does bring out a record number of African-American votes. And if he does that, he makes Musgrove's road a little bit easier. He'd only have to get something along the line of 24-25 percent of the white vote, which, by the way, is a little harder than it sounds, but it is not impossible. The one advantage that Wicker does have right now is money. He has outraised Musgrove pretty significantly. He has been on the air now for the last month or so trying to build that name I.D. It looks like he's going to get some help from Cochran and former Sen. Lott. This is not a race that's over, but just as an incumbent, he starts as the underdog.

Walter: That's a really interesting point about the Obama factor and the black and white turnout. There's not party identification on the ballot [in Mississippi]. Virginia is the same way. If you look at polls where they identified the parties of the two candidates, you see Wicker doing better. But if we're also assuming that black turnout is going to rise significantly, and that you're going to get new voters or folks that haven't been a part of the process in a long time into voting booths, I'm curious what that means for Musgrove too -- instead of [people] voting for Obama and then going down and voting for anyone that has a "D" after their name, that's just not possible.

Gonzales: If I could throw in a historical tidbit: Since 1948, there have been 23 times where a state has had both of their Senate seats up for grabs, and 20 of those times it went for the same party. The road is still tough for Musgrove.

Schaller: So Cochran helps Wicker because their names are side by side?

Gonzales: Historically, voters aren't necessarily picking between the two Senate seats. But there are different factors involved in all these races.

Schaller: Finally, most of you identified John Sununu as the single most vulnerable Republican incumbent, up in New Hampshire. Is there any scenario [in which] he holds on against former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in that race, or is he just a victim of the demographic changes that are turning New Hampshire blue almost overnight?

Walter: It's a couple of things. Part of it is the environment, but you have some demographic changes in the state. Remember, this is a very transient place, much more so than, say, Maine. Another interesting state we haven't talked about: Susan Collins, who has been pretty well ahead in her race against Tom Allen. Maine is obviously much less transient, so much so it may actually lose a seat in redistricting, but I digress. You have New Hampshire, not so much. Getting known in New Hampshire is a little bit more difficult even for an incumbent. And you also have all sorts of new people moving in, many of whom are identifying as independent and [are] more moderate leaning [than] in the past. And Sununu, unlike someone like Gordon Smith, hasn't spent a whole lot of time trying to distance himself from Bush and highlight his independent credentials. Again, in a year like this, that's just not a great place to be.

Duffy: I don't think this is an entirely lost cause for Sununu. There are some ways he can win. He did beat Jeanne Shaheen in 2002. One of the things that helps him a little bit here is John McCain -- whether or not he carries New Hampshire, he's going to do pretty well there and that probably works to Sununu's benefit. Most Democrats I talk to in the state say this is probably going to be a closer race than the polls indicate now, but I still put the thumb on the scale for Shaheen. It's not New Mexico and it's sure not Virginia.

Gonzales: Sen. Sununu starts behind, even though we haven't ramped up and reached the Labor Day point in the race where some voters really start to get engaged. He starts behind in a very difficult environment and that's one key thing we've already talked about that's very different than in 2002 when he did defeat Shaheen. Sen. Sununu has a plan reminding people what went wrong under Jeanne Shaheen when she was governor. He hopes to benefit from John McCain at the top of the ticket, but ultimately, I don't know if his reelection is under his control. He has more money than she does, he's going to run a tough race. But I think he might be in a similar position to Jim Talent in Missouri last cycle. who I think lost because of President Bush, not because of what he had done.

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