A big November ahead for Senate Democrats

Schaller: Let's fly down to the Rockies. There are Mormon cousins running in two Southwestern states. You've got representatives Mark and Tom Udall vying for the open seats respectively in Colorado and New Mexico, made available by the retirements of Wayne Allard and Pete Domenici. If I told you it's Wednesday, Nov. 5, the day after the election, and there's one Sen. Udall and one failed Udall candidate, who is the Sen. Udall most likely to win in those two states?

Duffy: That's an easy one. That'd be Tom Udall in New Mexico. I moved that race today to leaning Democratic. The Republican, Congressmen Steve Pearce, really starts this race as the underdog and probably does not have the time or the means to catch up in an environment like this.

Walter: Totally agree. I would argue that it's more likely than not that [both Udalls] end up serving together.

Gonzales: The most likely scenario is that they both win. I think that Tom Udall is running a great campaign. His ads are particularly good in my opinion, but the only case I can make to, be the contrarian, [is] that because of the Democratic attacks and the amount of information they have against Bob Schaffer, former congressman, who's the Republican nominee in Colorado, I wonder if Steve Pearce has a better chance in New Mexico because he isn't saddled with some of the baggage that Democrats are going after Schaffer with.

Schaller: Idaho became interesting this year because of Larry Craig and his personal problems in the Minneapolis airport. You've got Republican [Lt. Gov.] Jim Risch running there and a Democrat that some left-wing, net-roots blogger types like a lot, Larry LaRocco. Is this in the category of Gordon Smith or is this even further out -- if you have a megawave, then you take Idaho too?

Walter: I would say is there an Armageddon here. Because that's the tier it would be in. Idaho is sort of fascinating, I don't want to diminish it too much. There was a time when Democrats competed here and it was not all that long ago; there was a time when Democrats actually got elected here. For a time in the '90s and the early 2000s, Democrats really tried to take out people like [Helen] Chenoweth, they tried for the open seat with Richard Stalling -- you know, old-time Democrats. Larry LaRocco, again, old-time Democrat. Used to hold the seat. But the state has changed dramatically. Democrats may actually have a shot in one of the [House] districts, Bill Sali sort of following in the footsteps of Chenoweth as a very controversial candidate, but not as well organized as Chenoweth, and he doesn't have the base of support like she did. That's a place where maybe Democrats win because of Republican problems. But it takes a lot of problems for a Republican to lose here.

Duffy: If they get Idaho, you're talking more than 60 seats. You're probably in the 64, 65 range. Having said that, there are some interesting dynamics in play. LaRocco is a very, very aggressive candidate; Risch is not so much and has not been running that type of campaign. In fact, his campaign concerns a lot of Republicans [in] that he doesn't realize that he's playing in a different sphere now. But the more interesting thing is a third-party candidate who is really running against Risch because he has a personal issue with him; he and LaRocco have kind of ganged up on the lieutenant governor. So that's producing some interesting things.

Schaller: Let's move east from Idaho, and eventually you run into Minnesota, where we have former comedian Al Franken running there against Norm Coleman. I don't know what the status of the Jesse Ventura controversy is, but can one of you update me on whether he's running and whether that will matter and how that race will play out?

Duffy: The filing deadline closed on Tuesday [July 15] and Ventura decided not to run. He said on "Larry King" Monday night that if between Monday night and Tuesday at 5 o'clock, if God told him to run, he'd file, but apparently God decided not to render an opinion. I think this is one of the bright spots for Republicans if there is such a thing for them in this state. Franken has come under fire for a number of things: for failing to pay taxes, for failing to carry workmen's compensation insurance, for a Playboy article he wrote in 2000, which angered some Democratic women in the state, including Betty McCollum. So you're seeing the drip, drip, drip that Republicans have always talked about here and promises of more to come. I'm not sure how Franken gets out from under this.

Schaller: How strong is Coleman looking to you, Nathan?

Gonzales: This went from a tossup race in my mind to Coleman having the advantage. Part of it is because of Franken's hurdles or walls, depending on how you want to view his problems. There will be an independent on the ballot, Dean Barkley. He's a former senator, he was for two months following the death of Sen. Paul Wellstone. For voters who are dissatisfied with the job Norm Coleman is doing in Washington, they now have two options. Dean Barkley is not going to win, but if it's close and he takes a couple of percentage points, it could make the difference.

Walter: I agree with what has been said. Now, Franken has raised a good deal of money but he is nowhere near Norm Coleman's cash on hand, which I think is now over $7 million. Getting to parity is not going to be possible. This is another one of the places we talk about the DSCC, the NRSC money disparity. It's good news for the NRSC; for the DSCC, they're going to have to decide too, do we go in now, try to soften Coleman up, give some cover to Franken and see if we can push this race a little bit? Given the environment, this is one of those states that should be in play. It is quite remarkable that we're lumping in a category below some of these other races we've talked about, including Alaska and Mississippi. It is far from over, but either Franken or the Democrats are going to have start playing some offense here.

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