A big November ahead for Senate Democrats

Schaller: Who would be the next most vulnerable, or is it not even worth discussing?

Duffy: It's not even worth discussing. I still have Tim Johnson in South Dakota rated as a likely Democrat only because I want to remind myself that he isn't back to 100 percent since his brain surgery and there is some potential to be a slip out there, but I don't expect it. I just keep it there as a reminder to myself.

Schaller: Nathan, do you have anyone on the radar besides Mary Landrieu?

Gonzales: Not on the Democratic side.

Schaller: What about on the Republican side? After Sununu, if I told you by some miracle the Republicans staved off the Democrats and only lost two seats, and we assume Sununu is one, who's the other one?

Walter: I'd go with Ted Stevens in Alaska as the second most vulnerable. You just have a political environment in the state right now where ethics issues are front and center. It's a very good environment for someone who's not been part of the Republican establishment, especially the Washington establishment, as long as Stevens has. We've seen some polling from there that shows a very tough race for him, and on the money front he's doing OK; he has twice as much money in the bank, but it's nowhere near the kind of cash that some of these other incumbents who are in trouble have.

Gonzales: I think after John Sununu in New Hampshire there is a whole second tier that it becomes a little bit more difficult to delineate. Norm Coleman in Minnesota, Gordon Smith in Oregon, Ted Stevens in Alaska, Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, appointed Sen. Roger Wicker in Mississippi. I think Amy's right: Because of the ethical cloud and the investigation surrounding Ted Stevens, it brings a very Republican state into play. There's been only one Democrat in the last 30 years that's gotten over 50 percent in Alaska. But as we saw in 2006, in both the House and the Senate, the one thing that can bring red-state states or districts into play for Democrats is ethics. And that's what we're seeing in Alaska.

Schaller: Let's follow up on that Alaska seat. Tell me a little bit about this Democratic challenger. His name is Mark Begich. What makes him a formidable candidate?

Duffy: Mark Begich is the mayor of Anchorage. That gives him some statewide name I.D. He's kind of a business-oriented Democrat. He's had a very successful tenure as mayor. He's a very young guy, so there's a great contrast with Stevens. He's very pro-environment; he is also a big advocate of drilling in ANWR, because in Alaska, that's not an environmental issue, that's actually a jobs issue. He is sort of talking the Democratic message about doing things differently in Washington. It's an inexpensive state, he has been raising the money, so that all makes him competitive. Democrats are pretty happy with him as their candidate.

Schaller: By inexpensive, you mean that this is a place where Chuck Schumer can get a lot of mileage out of the next dollar he has over the Republicans?

Duffy: Oh, absolutely. This is a state where a million dollars goes a long, long way.

Schaller: So he's a certifiable, legitimate challenger? He's a good candidate, Nathan, not just because Stevens is in trouble?

Gonzales: He would be a good candidate even if Stevens didn't have the ethical stuff surrounding him, but I think he's in a position to win because of the ethics stuff.

Schaller: Let's move west to east, since we're already out in Alaska. Let's move to Oregon, where some people, certainly Oregon Democrats, are licking their chops. I see a new Rasmussen poll showing the Democratic nominee Jeff Merkley is basically neck and neck with Republican Gordon Smith, who has tried to moderate and distance himself from George Bush. Amy, is this a tossup race? Can Merkley win it?

Walter: It's interesting because for a while here this was considered a tossup race simply because you have a very blue state in a very bad year for Republicans. And even though Gordon Smith's profile suggests he's a very good fit for this state, the environment may just make that a moot point. But then you started to see this race starting to move more toward Smith, as Democrats struggled here to find a candidate. Merkley took a while to get his sea legs; he didn't have a particularly strong primary win. And his fundraising had been really slow. Now we hit the second quarter and he has more money in the bank, even though a big chunk of that was his own money. Gordon Smith's biggest asset here continues to be the cash advantage that he has. He's been up on TV for quite some time. He's spent over $2 million and has, what, over $5 million left to spend. So the question here, and we saw this in 2006, you can spend all the money in the world, but when you're running against a very tough climate, that is not always enough. If Merkley wins here, it'll be that sort of bellwether contest. How did we know this really was a bad year? We'll say, well, we have Gordon Smith, who's not running as a Bush Republican, in fact he's running as an Obama Republican actually, and if he loses to an underfunded Democrat, it really is because of the environment.

Schaller: Jennifer, do you see it that way? Is this one of the tipping-point races that could take this from a decent year to a great year for the Democrats?

Duffy: In a lot of ways I do, because I really don't think that Jeff Merkley is Gordon Smith's problem as much as the political climate is. I don't think Merkley is a particularly good candidate; he comes across as very awkward and he speaks in talking points, but that may not matter in a cycle like this. So I think Oregon is a very good test case for just how big this wave can get.

Schaller: Do you think Gordon Smith has sufficiently distanced himself from the Republican brand nationally to hold on?

Gonzales: Gordon Smith still has a narrow advantage in the race, and there's just a lack of polling and numbers so far to know how effective he's been thus far in positioning himself. I think as the race goes on there will be more public polling, more credible polling, that we can look at to see where he's positioned, but Oregon will be an indicator that if Democrats win they've moved beyond the initial three, four seats, and are marching much further in Republican territory.

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