How big will Democratic gains be this fall?

Schaller: Let me just be clear: Some people are talking [that] having the Udall cousins on the ballot will help Obama perhaps in New Mexico and Colorado. Are any of you suggesting that there's a potential reverse effect, that there's sort of an up-ballot effect -- arguably for the Democrats because of their investments and field plans -- that could actually help Obama, given what's going on the ground locally? Wasserman: I think that Stu made an interesting point earlier about casual voters. And I think a key question is, How will the voters who did not turn out in 2006 but will come out in 2008 for a presidential election, how will they view what's going on at the lower levels, and what kind of patterns can we expect to see? Fundamentally, I don't think turnout will be driven by congressional races in any circumstances. Turnout will be driven by the presidential race in the states where it is likely to be competitive, including Colorado, which you mentioned. We can expect to see casual voters help some Republican and Democratic candidates in places that are extremely favorable to one party or another. For example, I think Jean Schmidt in Ohio's 2nd District, who has had a lot of problems convincing voters that she is stable, could benefit from a presidential race because it takes away some of the tension from her. Voters in that district are fundamentally very conservative and it's a very Republican district. Rothenberg: I didn't mean to suggest that the down-ballot races would help Obama. I think turnout will largely be determined from the top. But when people talk about coattails, often they seem to be thinking that voters come out and they don't evaluate candidates other than who's running at the top of the ticket. I think the top of the ticket can be a factor in turning out these voters, so I would agree with that. But also I agree that there is a flipside here. I don't know how Barack Obama is going to be evaluated at the end of October. If the Republicans successfully pin him as a Northern ultra-liberal Democrat, and big taxer, then he could turn out not to be the huge asset. But right now, Democrats figure he adds to enthusiasm, he'll bring out new voters, and if that's what you mean by coattails, then he could have some coattails. But I think it's pretty early to determine that. Schaller: Last question. I'm going to put your feet to the fire since this is what you guys do for a living. I realize circumstances change at the national level -- what's your prediction right now, net gain for one party or the other, presumably the Democrats, on Wednesday morning after the election? Wasserman: I think our current outlook, which projects a Democratic gain of 10 to 20 seats in the House, is more of a punt than a prediction. If I had to say where the pendulum of possibility in the House stands right now, it would be about 15 seats for the Democrats. Unlike 2006, when Democrats held all of their own seats -- I think the Rothenberg Report researched this and found a year all the way back in the earlier part of the last century where this was the case, and you can tell me, Stu, when that was -- but unlike 2006, Democrats are going to have to lose a handful of seats before they start gaining any ground. So I could see Democrats losing five seats and gaining 20 Republican seats to come to that number. But a lot could change between now and then. Sahd: I'd say 15 to 18. I think for Republicans to keep this in the single digits as we speak now would be a major accomplishment for them, and I would consider it a win for Republicans if they could keep the losses in the single digits. But the way expectations are ratcheted up right now and the mood of the electorate, notwithstanding the seats the Democrats do have to hold, I would say around 15, 17, 18 for Democrats. Rothenberg: Well, Tom, I never make these sort of predictions, but because of my admiration for your work, I think you do such a good job, I'm actually going to crawl out on a limb, and allow you to saw it off, and I will then deny I ever made this number. But right now, if you asked me to guess -- that's what it is, a guess -- I'd guess 12 to 15 for the Ds. Which would be a very good year for them. They ought to be extremely happy. And the Republicans could probably feel relieved that they don't lose another 25. I think we're all in general agreement about the magnitude of this year. It's going to be quite a good Democratic year. Is it going to be 25 or 30, as some Democrats have said to me? I don't see it yet. I think that's unlikely, but something in the low to mid-teens. If Tim wants to take us into the upper teens, we don't have hard numbers right now, so we're all kind of guessing. It seems to me this is the ballpark we're in. And I say that with the caveat that the ballpark may get torn down and rebuilt with a very different range three or four months from now. Schaller: This has been a very illuminating conversation. I want to thank our guests.